NHL odds, preview, prediction: Golden Knights vs. Stars Game 1 for Monday 4/22

Golden Knights vs. Stars Odds

Monday, April 22, 9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NHL odds here.

Vegas Golden Knights

The Golden Knights been strong, but not elite, on offense this season. Vegas ranks 10th in Expected Goals For (xGF) and also ranks highly in generating high-danger chances. However, Vegas’ Corsi percentage, which indicates shot attempt differential at even strength, ranks 21st, suggesting some inefficiencies in controlling the puck.

In addition to those challenges, Vegas' power play has been mediocre. The Golden Knights rank 18th in power play goals, which reflects a need for more consistency in capitalizing on advantageous opportunities.

The poor offensive metrics can be attributed to the significant injuries Vegas suffered all year long. With lengthy injuries throughout the season to offensive weapons such as Jack Eichel, William Karlsson, Mark Stone and William Carrier, plus a series of defensemen, including Shea Theodore, Alex Pietrangelo and Alec Martinez, this season has been one that the Knights have had to endure to reach this point.

Defensively, the Golden Knights are a top unit. They're 13th in Expected Goals Against and eighth in defending against high-danger chances. Vegas’ penalty kill has been very effective, with the seventh-fewest goals allowed while shorthanded. Additionally, Vegas has accrued the third-fewest penalty minutes in the league. Any team that looks to defeat the Knights will need to rely on its 5-on-5 performance as Vegas won't give any free opportunities.

Goalie Logan Thompson's performance has been solid, ranking 26th in save percentage and 21st in goals against average. He was reliable during the regular season, but could be a concern against a high-scoring team like the Stars. With Adin Hill struggling to keep the puck out of the net lately, we might see Thompson in this game and much more during the playoffs.

Dallas Stars

The Stars boast one of the most dominant offensive setups in the NHL, ranking fifth in Corsi percentage and fourth in xG%, indicating efficient puck control and shot quality. They sit ninth in Expected Goals For and have scored the ninth-most power play goals, showcasing their ability to convert on scoring opportunities.

Their execution of high-danger chances, however, is slightly lower (15th), suggesting some room for improvement in creating clear-cut chances. Dallas has exceptional depth across all four of its lines and looks like it might be ready to put it all together.

On the defensive front, the Stars are among the NHL's elite, ranking sixth in Expected Goals Against and an impressive seventh in limiting high-danger chances. The Stars excel at the penalty kill, allowing the sixth-fewest goals while shorthanded, and boast the league's fewest penalty minutes — a testament to their disciplined play.

Nonetheless, goaltender Jake Oettinger has struggled somewhat this season compared to previous seasons as he posted the lowest save percentage (.905) and highest goals against average (2.72 GAA) of his four-year career. This is the time of year where elite goaltending is paramount, so it'll be interesting to see if Oettinger can regain his elite form.

Golden Knights vs. Stars

Betting Pick & Prediction

The best bet in this game is to take the Stars moneyline at -130 odds at DraftKings. While both teams have their strengths, Dallas’ superior ability to control play with every line and generate top-tier scoring opportunities gives it the edge, especially on home ice.

The Stars robust defensive metrics, coupled with their disciplined play (minimal penalty kills), should help mitigate the risks posed by Vegas' offense. Despite Oettinger’s goaltending concerns, Dallas's overall team performance and strategic advantages in key areas of the game make them the more likely victors in both this matchup (-130) and the series (-145).

This choice is not just about the numbers, but also considers the tactical match-ups and the playoff-like intensity expected in Dallas. The Stars moneyline is the best betting choice.

Pick: Stars Moneyline (-130)